According to weather predictions throughout the region offered Wednesday, by the time you’re reading this the high winds and snow are probably swirling outside your window.

It started Tuesday night with a cold snap and icy precipitation in some areas, eventually giving way to warmer temperatures Wednesday.

But all that, according to forecasters, was just the preamble to the year’s most serious weather warnings that have been in effect throughout the day.

“The snowfall amounts aren’t going to be as much up in Orleans and Niagara,” said Joe Pace at the Cheektowaga weather station.

He said about two to four inches are expected by this morning and another inch or two throughout the morning in that area, where only a lake effect snow advisory has been issued until 9 a.m. today.

But the situation will likely be much worse today just a little farther south in northern Erie County and beyond, where snow warnings are in effect until 10 p.m. Three to five inches overnight are expected to be followed by another six to 12 inches today. Even more could fall by tonight.

“It’s going to hammer Erie, Genesee and Wyoming counties and eventually move south,” Pace said.

Also, high wind warnings are in effect throughout the region until late today with 30 and 40 mph winds sometimes gusting at up to 60 mph, Pace said.

Wednesday afternoon, residents in the Twin Cities were seen packing grocery stores — and by one account even liquor stores — getting ready to hunker down.

Bill Fick, manager at Big D Tire at 107 River Road, was scrambling to keep up with an influx of customers looking for a set of new treads.

“It’s pretty typical every year. People will wait as long as possible and when the snow is forecasted or actually falling, that’s when we get a major rush,” Fick said.

He estimated business was up about 30 percent Wednesday afternoon. All-season tires were the most common item being sold, although some opted for full snow tires. His customers, he said, displayed varying levels of anxiety about the inclement weather forecast Wednesday.

“I’d say in general they were in good spirits,” he said.

Pace warned driving will likely be dangerous today regardless of what kind of tires are on your car. Even in Niagara County, where accumulation is expected to be less than half of that in Erie and farther south, he said whipping winds could cause sudden whiteouts.

“This system is really deep,” he said. “I heard a comment today saying the barometric pressure on the low is like a hurricane.”

Jack Kanack, who maintains a weather station in North Tonawanda and reports his measurements to national weather organizations, helped explain the scenario as it pertains to most readers of the Tonawanda News:

“You want to think about lake effect as a snow gun on a tripod, and depending which way the wind blows that will dictate what happens,” he said.

In other words, the gun was first aimed at the Tonawandas overnight but by about 3 a.m. had swiveled to aim south and hang out longer in south Buffalo and beyond.

Kanack said the good news is that high winds blowing over the lake are so strong that the time the air has to pick up moisture over the water is cut short.

“It’s going to set up here first and then slowly shift to the south,” he said Wednesday evening, agreeing the Erie-Niagara county line could be somewhat of a toss up in terms of accumulation, though other factors indicated it could be on the heavier side.

As of 7:15 p.m., he had measured 1.11 inches overall precipitation, mostly rain, since midnight.

“What’s unique about (this system) is that the air pressure is very, very low,” he said, echoing Pace’s sentiment. “It’s almost like a hurricane, but not. It’s a very intense storm.”

Quoting another statistic, he said the storm is four standard deviations from a normal storm this time of year.

“In layman’s terms it’s a very rare, big storm,” he said.

As for winds and rains that buffeted the area Wednesday afternoon, emergency responders in the Twin cities reported no significant accidents, floods or other incidents.

However, firefighters at the City of Tonawanda’s 44 William St. station were temporarily alarmed when their flag pole outside the building appeared to have been struck by lightning, the likes of which was flashing throughout the early afternoon.

Fire Chief Charles Stuart said firefighters were alarmed to see what looked like smoke ascending from the tip of the pole around 2 p.m.

But firefighters were likely surprised by what they found.

“Firefighter Shane Mast braved the elements and the driving rain, ascending a fire department ladder with a fire extinguisher in hand only to find that the flag wasn’t on fire,” Stuart said, explaining what actually happened.

“The way the rain was bouncing off the light ... because it is a light bulb, when the rain hits it, it looked like steam. They honestly thought it was on fire.”

Contact reporter Neale Gulley at 693-1000, ext. 114.