By Daniel Pye<br><a href="mailto:pyed@gnnewspaper.com">E-mail Dan</a>
With each day upping the ante for both state and national elections, there's no shortage of opinions going around.
But Dr. James Campbell, chairman of the University at Buffalo's political science department, said he's already figured out how the presidential race will end up in John McCain's favor. Campbell weighs in on the national elections and tells us why he’s betting on McCain in this week’s Q&A.;
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QUESTION: First off, what do you think helped Alice Kryzan take out the money of Jack Davis and political backing of Jon Powers in the 26th Congressional district Democratic primary?
ANSWER: I think it certainly looks like the two negative campaigns that were run did each other in and left Kryzan standing. The research that has been done doesn’t suggest negative campaigning isn't effective. I think in this case both of these campaigns were effective and it's just that the one it wasn't directed toward was left standing.
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Q: Why do you think neither Davis nor Powers ever went after her?
A: It looks like they thought she was an ‘also-ran,’ that third candidate who gets the small percentage of the vote. They were just concerned with each other and that took on a life of its own. When you're challenged you have to respond, but you have to keep you eye on the ball when there are three candidates that the voters don’t know a lot about.
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Q: Why do you think we’re hearing the change message echoed in both the state and national races this year?
A: The change theme is perennial. It goes back as long as we've had politics. When people think times aren't so good, they pick the change theme. When times are good, it’s the stability theme. The problem is people in Western New York haven't been satisfied with the way things are going for quite some time.
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Q: Do you think that's why outsider candidates like Kryzan or Joe mesi in the 61st state Senate race are appealing to Democratic primary voters?
A: From what understand, Tom Golisano was very important in helping to finance the Mesi campaign, but Mesi has something else going for him. Whenever you have a celebrity running, it takes care of one of the early requirements of getting name recognition, and that's a big advantage.
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Q: How do you think Kryzan will fare against Republican Christopher Lee in the general election?
A: I think it's going to be a close race. This is a district that, in the past at least, has tilted toward Republican candidates. Given that, Lee has a head start with Democrats coming out of a divisive primary. Kryzan won the support of her party, but she got less than 50 percent of the vote so she's got some work to do. You'd like to come out of your own party's nomination with at least 60 percent of the party pulling the lever for you.
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Q: Why do you think the Republicans haven't been running primaries against each other while the Democrats seem to have three candidates dividing the party in each race?
A: This is the first place I've lived where there's so much apparent control of the nominations by party leadership. It may be the case that the area overall is dominated by Democrats, so the Republicans have to stand united from the start to have any chance at all.
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Q: On to the presidential election, how do you think things will shake out between Barack Obama and John McCain?
A: The forecasting model I've been using since 1992 to predict the election is based on analysis of polls taken at different times during the campaign, trying to read them in historical context and how they've correlated with the vote since 1948. Mainly it uses the post-convention, early September Gallup poll and the second-quarter growth numbers for the economy. Together, those things provide a pretty good chance that McCain will get between 52 and 53 percent of the two-party popular vote.
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Q: How does the economy play into McCain's hands?
A: Well the economy is basically neutral. The public's opinions is negative about the economy, certainly in Western new York, but a 3.3 percent growth rate really doesn't hurt the in-party. More than that, in 13 of the last 15 elections since 1948, the poll leader coming out of the convention has won the election. Of the other two, one was the surprise Dewey loss and the other was Richard Nixon's loss to Kennedy, where Nixon barely had a lead over Kennedy coming out of the convention. McCain has a bigger lead at this point. Since the economy is kind of a wash, I think you have to attribute a lot of that to the pick of Sarah Palin for how people have changed their views of McCain.
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Q: Why do you think the Palin pick is trouble for the Obama camp?
A: As the Obama campaign has proven, this campaign is about the change theme. Obama ran on and defeated Clinton with the change theme, and given the Bush approval rate that makes sense.
The question is what kind of change and who is delivering it. In our country, the conservatives outnumber the liberals.
When you look at their voting records, Obama has been liberal, almost as liberal as can be. If the same group looks at John McCain's behavior over the last few years, they'll find him midway between conservative and moderate. That should make him more appealing to voters with lower party unity. That's why his selection may have upset the base, but his pick of Palin cemented his outsider image and at the same time was done with a conservative emphasis.
In some of the swing states of the Midwest, which have a large population of small town, rural voters, of all the four candidates on the two tickets I think Palin resonates with those people. The Republicans won't let Obama forget that statement about small town voters being angry and clinging to religion and guns. That is something that can't be taken back once it's said and paints Obama as someone who will serve the East and West Coast elites.
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Q: How do you think McCain survived the primary season on top after being pushed by the wayside in past years?
A: Most people start with the base and reach out to the center. In many ways, McCain's choice is a fluke. He's the nominee who's more moderate than typical in such a partisan campaign. A couple of things led to that, including the Republicans having no unified conservative candidate in a crowded field. The Palin pick fixes a lot of McCain's problems with the base, and was made possible in part by Obama.
Because the inexperience argument doesn't work as well when the Republicans are able to point to someone with little experience at the top of the Democratic ticket. If this election revolves around experience, McCain wins.
